FEMA / Citizen Corps Feeds

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West
A strong and very moist storm system will develop over western Washington today bringing heavy rain, upper elevation snow and strong winds to the Pacific Northwest. Parts of the Cascades, Bitterroots, and mountainous regions of Wyoming may see up to 12 inches of snow by tomorrow evening. Elsewhere, the region will be mild and sunny, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations of California and the Desert Southwest.
Midwest
Light to moderate snow can be expected today in the Upper Midwest from northern Minnesota across Wisconsin. Up to 4-6 inches of snow will be possible from northeastern Iowa through north-central Minnesota, with heavier amounts closer to the Canadian border. Elsewhere, expect light showers and possible thunderstorms to move across portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
South
Tuesday should be mainly dry, with light showers possible in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Look for temperatures to remain slightly above average, with highs in the 60s and 70s in the Southeastern U.S., and in the 50s from Arkansas to the southern Appalachians & northern North Carolina.
Northeast
Some light precipitation is expected today, with a chance of showers in upstate New York, and portions of Pennsylvania & West Virginia. Elsewhere will be mainly dry from New England down through the eastern Mid-Atlantic, with temperatures from near average to 15 degrees above average.

Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Power Restoration:

Power restoration continues for a winter storm that occurred Sunday February 19, 2012 and stretched from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky across to North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. The storm brought heavy, wet snow that resulted in numerous power outages across several states. As of 5:15 a.m. EST, Kentucky Power was reporting 16,742 customers still without power, with restoration expected by Friday, February 24. Appalachian Power, servicing most of the affected areas in Virginia and West Virginia, was reporting more than 20,839 customers without power and expects to have power restored to 90% of their customers by midnight Friday. Appalachian Power has approximately 740 contract line workers, 500 tree trimmers and 80 damage assessors assisting their employees with service restoration. Meanwhile, Dominion Virginia Electric reports that power has been restored to all customers. There continue to be no reports of shelters opening due to the power outages. None of the State Emergency Operation Centers have activated; there have been no requests for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

Severe Thunderstorms—Kansas & Oklahoma:

A Severe Storm system brought rain, hail and straight-line winds with gusts over 60 mph to portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas on Monday evening, February 20, 2012. Minor damages were reported to some homes, mobile homes and businesses—primarily in the Oklahoma City area—however, no major damage was reported. Media reported one storm-related fatality (unconfirmed) near Ada, Oklahoma in southeastern Oklahoma. Power restoration is nearly complete, and as of 5:15 a.m. EST, Entergy Power (Arkansas) was reporting just over 400 customers without power, while Weststar Energy (Kansas) reports that power has been restored to nearly all customers. None of the State Emergency Operation Centers are activated; there has been no request for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

Western Washington River Flooding:

The combination of heavy precipitation and mild temperatures continuing through tomorrow morning in the coast and mountains of Washington State could lead to possible flooding in some of its western rivers, and a flood watch remains in effect this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for western portions of the state. Total rainfall will likely be 4 to 7 inches over the Cascades for the 36-hour period spanning from yesterday morning through tomorrow evening (PST), however, as is often the case during heavy rain events, some areas of even greater amounts are likely. The rivers of greatest risk of major flooding are those flowing out of eastern King and Snohomish counties off the Cascades’ western slopes. These include—but are not limited to—the Stillaguamish, the Skykomish, the Tolt, the Snohomish, and the Snoqualmie Rivers. Model uncertainty is great enough that all rivers in western Washington have some risk of flooding, and a flood watch has been issued for all main stem rivers, including those on the Olympic Peninsula and the entire Chehalis Basin.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Space Weather Center to Add World’s First "Ensemble Forecasting" Capability:

Improved Forecasting to Coincide with Peak in Solar Activity
After years of relative quiet, the sun is beginning to stir. By the time it's fully awake in about 20 months, the team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., charged with researching and tracking solar activity, will have at their disposal a greatly enhanced forecasting capability. Goddard's Space Weather Laboratory recently received support under NASA's Space Technology Program Game Changing Program to implement "ensemble forecasting," a computer technique already used by meteorologists to track potential paths and impacts of hurricanes and other severe weather events. Instead of analyzing one set of solar-storm conditions, as is the case now, Goddard forecasters will be able to simultaneously produce as many as 100 computerized forecasts by calculating multiple possible conditions. Just as important, they will be able to do this quickly and use the information to provide alerts of space weather storms that could potentially be harmful to astronauts and NASA spacecraft.

Sun Growing Restless
Since the sun reached its solar minimum in 2008—the period when the number of sunspots is lowest—it has begun to awaken from its slumber and is now entering a solar maximum as part of its 11-year cycle, which is expected to peak in 2013. During this time, more powerful Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), often associated with M- and X-class flare events, become more numerous and can affect any planet or spacecraft in its path. In the past, solar storms have disrupted power grids on Earth and damaged instrumentation on satellites. They can also be harmful to astronauts if they are not warned to take protective cover. With this in mind, NASA recognized the importance of accurately predicting future solar storm conditions.

Weaknesses in Current System
Currently, the laboratory is running one CME model, meaning it is calculating one set of parameters at a time. The parameters are derived from near real-time data gathered by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, among others. However, imperfections currently exist in the data—imperfections which grow over time, leading to forecasts that don't agree with the evolution of actual conditions. Ensemble forecasting, however, overcomes the weaknesses in the data by allowing forecasters to tweak the conditions. In essence, the multiple forecasts provide information on the different ways the CME can evolve over the next few hours, ultimately improving forecasting techniques. Once this forecasting technique is verified and validated by NASA's Space Weather Laboratory, the capability will be made available to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, which is responsible for issuing national space weather alerts. NASA's goal to understand and track space weather activity will enable a greatly enhanced forecasting capability for U.S. interests.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Friday, February 17, 2012 (For period 10–17 February, 2012):
National Preparedness Level: 1, Initial Attack Activity: Light (568 new fires)
New Large Fires: 3, Large Fires Contained: 2, Uncontained Large Fires: 1, Type 1 IMT Committed: 0, Type 2 IMT Committed: 0, State Affected: FL & AZ

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

 West:
A Pacific storm will bring rain along the West Coast from Northern California to Washington. The Cascades could pick up as much as 4 inches of snow by tomorrow night.  A low pressure system over northwest Mexico will bring lower elevation rain and mountain snow to the southern Rockies. Rain and snow showers will fall over southeastern Arizona and across much of New Mexico where 2 to 12 inches of snowfall is possible for the higher elevations.

Midwest:
Under a ridge of high pressure, skies will be clear to partly cloudy around much of the region with temperatures some 5 to 15 degrees above average.  Precipitation will be limited to snow across the northern Great Lakes.

South:
A frontal system in the northern Gulf of Mexico will produce showers and thunderstorms across northern Texas and the Gulf Coast. Rainfall of up to 1 inch is possible with locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms in South Texas could become severe.  The precipitation will move northward into Oklahoma and the Central Plains this afternoon. High pressure will mean generally dry and mild conditions across the Southeast.

Northeast:
With high pressure ridging in behind yesterday’s frontal system, the Mid-Atlantic will be generally dry and mild.  Eastern New England will have a few showers this morning. Snow will persist across northern New England with up to 3 inches of new snow possible in northern Maine.  Upstate New York will have lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario.
A low is forecast to develop tomorrow in the Lower Mississippi Valley and track eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. The type and amount of precipitation will depend on the exact trajectory of the low. This system is currently forecast to produce 1to 4 inches of wet snow from the Appalachians to as far north as New York City.  Areas to the south and east will have rain.

Space Weather: No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours. Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Oregon Request
The Governor of Oregon has requested a major disaster declaration due to serve storms, flooding, and landslides that occurred Jan. 17-21, 2012. The Governor is requesting five counties for Individual Assistance, twelve counties for Public Assistance, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
A weak system will impact the Pacific Northwest today, producing scattered rain and higher elevation snow. Farther south, an upper level disturbance will move from the Central Great Basin into the Southwest, producing rain and mountain snow from southeastern California through New Mexico. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue across Southern California behind the storm with some gusts above 60 mph.

Midwest:
An upper-level low will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Rockies and southern high Plains this evening into tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, precipitation over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move east towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by tonight.

South:
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the region today, including a slight risk of severe thunderstorms along portions of the Central and Western Gulf Coast.

Northeast:
A front moving out of the Great Lakes region will bring rain and snow to much of the Northeast. Look for precipitation to reach the New England coastline by this afternoon and evening, along with scattered showers farther south across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

Space Weather: No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours. Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

Northeast
Today should be mostly cool and dry across the region with the exception of possible flurries and light rain in Pennsylvania, New York and northern New England. Temperatures should be above average region-wide with highs ranging from the 40s in Maine to the upper 50s in southern Virginia.

South
A threat for severe thunderstorms exists today mainly from eastern Texas into southwest Mississippi, with rainfall up to 1 inch or more expected in affected areas. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms could develop across the Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas region and spread eastward throughout the day. Some of the storms may be severe and capable of producing damaging winds, with a tornado or two possible. Temperatures will remain above-average in some areas, with highs ranging from the 70s and low 80s in the Gulf Coast states.

Midwest
Rain today stretching across Kansas into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with rainfall near 1 inch in parts of Missouri & Illinois. Look for partly cloudy skies turning over to rain and snow in the evening for the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley with heavy snow possible in southern Wisconsin and portions of the Lower Peninsula. Temperatures are generally above average across the majority of the region with highs ranging from the 30s up to the 50s from southeast Kansas to Kentucky.

West
A pair of disturbances will impact the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days, stretching from the Pacific Northwest down into the Desert Southwest before heading toward the east. A cold front moving through the southwest will lead to widely scattered rain and snow showers across southern California and the Central Great Basin today. However, a lack of moisture with this system should keep precipitation light across the region. Farther north, an upper disturbance is forecast to move from coastal Washington State south bringing light snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Sierra Nevada and northern half of Nevada.

NOAA: La Niña Likely to Transition to El Niño-neutral Conditions from March through May 2012:

A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. NOAA reports that irregularities of the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300 meters of the ocean) also weakened slightly, but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the International Date Line. Additionally, abnormal low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific during this period.

The current oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña; but a majority of models predict it to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere during this winter and dissipate during the spring. La Niña patterns are characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to the El Niño pattern which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

NOAA expects La Niña impacts to continue in the coming months, bringing an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S., from February through April. Also, above-average precipitation is expected across most of the northern states (except the north-central U.S.) and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Additionally, drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor; geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor; geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

On February 14, 2012, at 10:31 EST, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of Oregon approximately 159 miles west of Coos Bay, Oregon, and 236 miles west-southwest of Salem, Oregon, at a depth of 6.2 miles. The earthquake was centered in an active seismic area along the Blanco Fracture Zone, one of several seismically active transform faults off the coast of Oregon. Although earthquakes occur frequently along the Blanco Fracture Zone, they are rarely felt. Generally, the transform motion does not produce tsunamis because the horizontal motion of the plates does not raise or lower the seafloor as is required to produce a tsunami. The USGS issued a GREEN Pager Alert, indicating a low likelihood of casualties & damage, and the Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued an information statement stating that there was no tsunami threat. There were no preliminary reports of damage or injuries caused by this earthquake.

USGS Twitter Earthquake Alerts:
The U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS) is offering earthquake alerts via two Twitter accounts: @USGSted and @USGSBigQuakes. @USGSted (USGS Twitter Earthquake Dispatch) distributes alerts for earthquakes worldwide with magnitudes of 5.5 and above, while @USGSBigQuakes (USGS Big Quakes) is for users who are only interested in seismically derived content. For more information on how to access these accounts, visit: earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ted/.

 

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 to Emergency Declaration FEMA-3336-EM for the State of Delaware closes the incident period effective August 31, 2011.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

Northeast
A weakening storm moving eastward from the Great Lakes will bring light snow through tonight for much of southwestern New York & Pennsylvania. The far northeastern portions of the region will be mainly clear and dry, with temperatures hovering around the teens & 20s from Massachusetts up through Maine. Farther south, the Mid-Atlantic States will see a slight chance of rain & snow showers early in the day turning to rain later, with highs near 50.
South
Significant rain throughout much of the region today, with the heaviest amounts targeting portions of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Florida Panhandle and a rain/snow mix in the southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, the Southern Plains should be mostly dry except for east Texas, with high temperatures ranging from the 40s in the Tennessee Valley & western Carolinas to the 70s in central & south Texas and around the Gulf Coast.
Midwest
An active system in the central U.S. will gradually weaken today as it pushes toward the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys, however portions of Southern Michigan & the Ohio Valley should still see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. The rain/snow boundary will gradually shift to southern Indiana, Ohio & Kentucky later today, as milder air from the Gulf of Mexico becomes more dominant and the system works its way eastward. Elsewhere, dry weather should dominate the mid-Mississippi Valley, and Central & Northern Plains, with temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees above average.
West
An upper low moving southward along interior California is forecast to spread a moderate amount of mountain snow from the Sierra Nevada Mountains to southwestern Colorado today, with the heaviest concentration in the Four Corners states. Elsewhere, look for coastal rain and upper-elevation snow to continue in the Pacific Northwest, with highs in the 30’s and mid-40’s in Washington & Oregon.

Say Hello to CalVO: USGS California Volcano Observatory Opens:

With more than 500 volcanic vents identified in the State of California, sooner or later one of these volcanoes is bound to erupt. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey recently announced the establishment of the USGS California Volcano Observatory, or CalVO, headquartered within existing USGS facilities in Menlo Park, California. Establishing CalVO will increase awareness of and resiliency to the volcano threats in California, many of which pose significant threats to the economy and well being of the state and its inhabitants.

CalVO takes on responsibility for research, monitoring, and assessing hazards for all of the potentially active volcanoes in California and coordinating with local and State emergency managers to prepare for responding to renewed volcanic activity. Previously, the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Washington was responsible for responding to volcanic unrest at some northern California volcanoes.
CalVO replaces the former Long Valley Observatory, established in 1982 to monitor the restless Long Valley Caldera and Mono-Inyo Craters region of California. The creation of CalVO will improve coordination with federal, state, and local emergency managers during volcanic crises, and create new opportunities for volcanic hazard awareness and preparedness. The realignment of USGS Volcano Observatories will further facilitate collaboration with federal and state partner agencies including the California Emergency Management Agency and the California Geological Survey.

The list of potentially threatening volcanoes on CalVO’s watch list includes Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake Volcano, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; Long Valley Caldera and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California; Salton Buttes, Coso Volcanic Field, and Ubehebe Craters in southern California; and Soda Lakes in central Nevada. CalVO’s watch list is subject to change as new data on past eruptive activity becomes known, as volcanic unrest develops, as monitoring networks are upgraded, and/or as exposure factors change.

Under the Stafford Act, the USGS has the federal responsibility to issue timely and effective warnings of potential volcanic disasters.  In addition to CalVO, the USGS operates four other volcano observatories. The Cascade Volcano Observatory oversees efforts at all potentially active volcanoes in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory is responsible for volcanoes in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona. The Alaska Volcano Observatory oversees Alaskan volcanoes and those within the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The oldest USGS volcano observatory, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, is responsible for the state of Hawaii and is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year. All USGS volcano observatories share scientific expertise, administrative staff, and equipment.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

South Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P) (as of Feb 14 at 04:00 a.m. EST)
The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is located approximately 25 nautical miles south-southwest of Tonga and 600 nautical miles south-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa, moving southeastward at approximately 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, with momentary gusts of 52 mph. Intensity is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate over water after the next 48 hours. No impact is expected for American Samoa or other U.S. interests in the region.

South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (12S) (as of Feb 13 at 10:00 p.m. EST)
The center of TC Giovanna is positioned over Madagascar, approximately 95 nautical miles east of the capitol Antananarivo (pop: 1.3 million), tracking westward at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 109 mph with gusts to 132 mph, making it a Category 2 storm. Intensity is expected to rapidly weaken while Giovanna is over Madagascar, but after reemerging into the Mozambique Channel, it will reconsolidate and start strengthening. TC Giovanna is expected to continue to track westward, making landfall in Mozambique within the next 96 to 120 hours before dissipating. No impact is expected to U.S. interests in the region.

Earthquake Activity

California
On February 13, 2012 at 4:07 p.m. EST, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred approximately 5 miles southwest of Weitchpec, CA, and 217 miles northwest of Sacramento, CA at a depth of 17.5 miles. Weitchpec is located in a seismically active area in a rural portion of Humboldt County, CA on the Hoopa Valley Indian Reservation several miles east of Redwood National Park. A dispatcher at the Humboldt County Sheriff’s Department said the trembler was widely felt and the shaking lasted for 30-45 seconds. Hundreds of people reported feeling the quake on the USGS website, some as far away as southern Oregon. Local authorities sent deputies and officers out to check on residents, but did not report any injuries or damage. NOAA issued a statement that the trembler was not large enough to generate a tsunami, and there were no requests for FEMA assistance.

Solomon Islands
On February 14, 2012 at 3:20 a.m. EST, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake occurred 44 miles west of Kira Kira, San Cristobal, Solomon Islands at a depth of 34 miles. The National Weather Service West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued Tsunami Information Statements stating that NO destructive widespread tsunami threat exists. No tsunami warnings, watches or advisories have been issued; however, earthquakes of this size sometimes generate local tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located within a hundred kilometers of the earthquake epicenter. The USGS issued a GREEN Pager Alert stating there is a low likelihood of casualties and damage. The FEMA National Watch Center has been in contact with the FEMA Region IX Watch Center and there have been no preliminary reports of damage or injury.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

Northeast
High pressure is in place today bringing plenty of sunshine and moderate temperatures. The high will move off the mid-Atlantic coast today bringing a return to above normal temperatures on Tuesday. Lake effect snow along the Great Lakes will end today as warmer air builds in from the mid-Atlantic region. A fast moving weak disturbance approaches for the mid-week period bringing with it a chance of light mixed precipitation.
South
Another blast of cold arctic air is expected again tonight into northern Florida with temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s and windchills in the upper teens. The high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will move off to the east today as a storm system over the Rockies approaches the middle Tennessee Valley, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation across portions of the Deep South from Louisiana across the far northern portion of Mississippi into northern Alabama and Georgia.
Midwest
The Northern Plains can expect quiet weather today with moderating temperatures. A wintry mix of precipitation will fall across a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Accumulating snow and sleet is forecast over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before ending Monday evening. Snow will spread across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning before changing to freezing drizzle this afternoon.
West
A very weak storm system will spread light rain over western Washington today before ending late this afternoon. A series of cold winter storms to impact southern California this week bringing periods of rain and mountain snow, gusty winds and cold weather. Light to moderate rain and mountain snow is expected this afternoon and evening. The San Bernardino Mountains could see 4 to 9 inches of snow. Snow will develop over the Sierras and southern Great Basin. Rain and snow will become more widespread on Tuesday as the storm moves into southern Nevada and far northwest Arizona. Temperatures will drop to well below normal by Tuesday.

January 2012 the Fourth Warmest for the Contiguous United States:

U.S. Climate Highlights—January 2012

Temperature
Unusual warmer-than-average temperatures continued to dominate the contiguous United States this past month, making January 2012 the fourth warmest on record, and the warmest since 2006. The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3° F, which is 5.5° F above the 1901–2000 long-term average.  Nine states – Arizona, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming – had January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Florida and Washington were the only states with temperatures near average, and no state was cooler than average. In contrast to the contiguous United States being much warmer than usual, several towns across Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record, ranging from -16.6° F in Nome, down to -35.6° F in Bettles, AK.

Precipitation
Precipitation totals were mixed across the United States during January. The Southern Plains and the Great Lakes were wetter than average for the month, with Texas having above-average precipitation for the second month in a row. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January–February 2010. Meanwhile, below-average precipitation was observed for the Central Plains, where Kansas had its third driest January, and Nebraska its eighth. The Southeast was also drier than average, where Florida had its eighth driest January on record. Many locations along Florida’s Atlantic coast, which usually averages over 2.5 inches of precipitation during January, had little to no precipitation during the month.
Additionally, cities across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast had below-average snow fall during the month – a result of warmer and drier than average conditions. Despite a large winter storm which impacted the western U.S. during January, much of the region was drier than average. California had its fourth driest December-January period, and Montana had its sixth. However, wetter-than-average conditions were observed in a string of states from New Mexico to New York, with Texas having its eleventh wettest two-month period.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours.

2012 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop: Wildland fire, weather, and climate representatives who met virtually from January 17-19, 2012, for the tenth annual National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern & Southern United States, reported that the first half of 2012 should see above normal significant fire potential across Florida and coastal portions of the southeastern states, central and western Texas and Oklahoma, and much of New Mexico and southeast Arizona.
The main objectives of the workshop was to improve information available to fire management decision makers; improve communication & cooperation between fire professionals & climate scientists; improve interagency & inter-government information flow; foster the exchange of ideas & techniques for assessing fire potential; and apply climate forecasts & products to meet fire management needs. There were two fire potential forecasts produced for the Eastern, Southern and Southwest Geographic Areas; one for February through March and another for April through June.
Drought stricken portions of the upper Midwest will also see above normal significant fire potential. All above normal areas are expected to expand during the April through June period. An area of above normal significant fire potential in eastern Texas is expected to develop during the April through June period. Below normal significant fire potential is expected across a large portion of the east-central U.S. for the entire outlook period, and elsewhere the significant fire potential is expected to be normal.
Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

California
On February 12, 2012 at 11:47 p.m. EST, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake occurred approximately 3 miles east of the Geysers, CA and 65 miles northwest of San Francisco, CA at a depth of 0.2 miles. This earthquake occurred in an active seismic area near the Collayomi & Maacuma Fault Zones and was the largest of over 100 minor quakes that have occurred over the past seven days in the same area. There were no reports of shaking, damage, or injury and the Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued an information statement stating that there was no tsunami threat.

Wildfire Update

Friday, February 10, 2012 (For period 3–10 February, 2012):
National Preparedness Level: 1
Initial Attack Activity: Light (281 new fires)
New Large Fires: 0
Large Fires Contained: 1
Uncontained Large Fires: 0
Type 1 IMT Committed: 0
Type 2 IMT Committed: 0
State Affected: OK

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

South 
Light to moderate rain is forecast from the Southern Plains and the Central Gulf Coast through the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast throughout the day. Precipitation is forecast to be light; however, some of the storms could turn severe in the Coastal Carolinas and central/southern Florida. A wintry mix of rain and snow will move from Kentucky and Tennessee into the central Appalachians tonight.

Midwest
Lake-effect snows producing light to moderate snowfall accumulations are forecast for portions of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana. Snow accumulations may reach up to 3 inches in the Chicago metropolitan area and northwest Indiana. A wintry mix of rain and snow is possible in the Ohio Valley throughout the day. Below normal temperatures are expected through the day for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes into the Northern and Central Plains. Highs are forecast in the teens and twenties in the affected areas.

West
Rain and mountain snow will continue in the Pacific Northwest and northern California through Saturday. Snow is expected in portions of the Northern Intermountain, Northern and Central Rockies and into the High Plains. Higher elevation areas may see heavy snow accumulation.

Northeast
Rain and snow showers are anticipated for the Mid-Atlantic region through this morning. Lake-effect snow will impact portions of New York and Pennsylvania today. Above average temperatures of up to 15 degrees are expected in the New England region.(NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources) 

Space Weather:

No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours. (SWPC) 

New Satellite Instrument for Improved Weather Forecast Put Into Service

 

As of February 8, 2012, the Commissioning for all instrumentation on America’s new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite is nearly complete. The Suomi NPP is designed to give scientists more refined information about Earth’s atmosphere and improve weather and climate forecast. This powerful satellite is now active and sending its first data back to Earth from America’s newest polar-orbiting satellite. There are five instruments aboard the Suomi NPP satellite, which NASA launched on October 28, 2011, from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Since it reached orbit, these instruments, including four used in space for the first time, are undergoing extensive, initial checkouts before starting regular science observations.

The Cross-track Infrared Sounder, one of the five instruments on board, will produce high resolution, three-dimensional temperature, atmospheric pressure, and moisture profiles that will be used in NOAA’s weather prediction computer models to forecast severe weather days in advance. Over longer timescales this information will also help scientists understand climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña.

“Data from CrIS will improve the quality, timeliness and accuracy of NOAA’s weather and climate predictions, which directly benefits everyone in America,” as stated by the Assistant Administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.

The Suomi NPP team is expected to continue commissioning activities until the end of March. Upon completion, NOAA will operate Suomi NPP, and process and distribute the data to users around the world. “Suomi NPP instrument commissioning is going very well and the team is pleased that the satellite is taking the next step in its mission of providing this critical weather data to NOAA,” said Ken Schwer, Suomi NPP project manager.

The Suomi NPP mission is the bridge between NOAA’s Polar Operational Environmental Satellite and NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites to the next-generation Joint Polar Satellite System which NOAA will operate. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., manages the Suomi NPP mission for the Earth Science Division of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. (Source:www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120208_nppinstrument.html)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

 West:
A series of storms moving into the Pacific Northwest will produce light to moderate rain and mountain snow in the Northern and Central Rockies and High Plains late tonight into Friday.
Midwest:
Most of the region will remain dry under high pressure this morning, but light snow, associated with a cold front moving south from Canada, will fall over the Great Lakes this afternoon into Friday. Temperatures will remain below average over the Central Plains.
South:
Light rain will develop over portions of the Southern Plains and move into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast by Friday evening.  Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over portions of southern Florida through Friday morning.
Northeast:
The remaining rain and snow, associated with an upper-level disturbance, will taper off this early morning across the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic States. Behind the system, most of the eastern U.S. will see clear skies and warmer temperatures throughout the day. 

2012 Spring Flood Risk:

Vulnerability for late winter and spring flooding (February – Mid May 2012) has shifted to the central and southern portions of the U.S.  Wet fall and winter conditions and future seasonal forecasts have increased the potential for flooding especially in the Ohio, Arkansas and Lower Mississippi River Basins. In the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Basins, snowpack is the primary factor for flooding. The light snowpack in the northern U.S. combined with the forecasted precipitation has decreased the risk of significant spring flooding for historical flood affected areas such as the Red River of the North, the James River and Devils Lake areas. The National Weather Service will update the flood potential for these basins in the coming weeks and months. The official Spring Flood Outlook will be released on March 15, 2012.  For specific river forecast information, go to water.weather.gov. 

Space Weather:

No space weather storms have occurred in the past 24 hours and none are predicted for the next 24 hours. 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
A Pacific storm along the California coast will produce light to moderate rain and mountain snow throughout the morning. Winds are expected to increase in intensity throughout the day, with gusts reaching 70 mph tonight.  A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening. Moisture associated with this system will move northward along the coast into the Pacific Northwest tonight. A weak storm system will move slowly across northern Colorado producing accumulations of 2-6 inches of snow.

Midwest:
Light rain and snow is expected throughout the day in portions of the Central Plains. The rain and freezing drizzle over portions of Nebraska, Kansas and southern Missouri will spread into parts of the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later in the day. Temperatures in the Central Plains will be 10 to 20 degrees below average.

South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the eastern Florida coast through Wednesday morning. Light snow is expected across eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas late tonight. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for the Southern Plains.

Northeast:
Showers are possible over portions of the Mid-Atlantic; severe storms are not expected.

Space Weather:

Space weather during the past 24 hours has been minor, with radio blackouts reaching the R1 level.  No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
A Pacific storm along the California coast will produce light to moderate rain and mountain snow throughout the morning. Winds are expected to increase in intensity throughout the day, with gusts reaching 70 mph tonight. A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening. Moisture associated with this system will move northward along the coast into the Pacific Northwest tonight. A weak storm system will move slowly across northern Colorado producing accumulations of 2-6 inches of snow.

Midwest:
Light rain and snow is expected throughout the day in portions of the Central Plains. The rain and freezing drizzle over portions of Nebraska, Kansas and southern Missouri will spread into parts of the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later in the day. Temperatures in the Central Plains will be 10 to 20 degrees below average.

South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the eastern Florida coast through Wednesday morning. Light snow is expected across eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas late tonight. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for the Southern Plains.

Northeast:
Showers are possible over portions of the Mid-Atlantic; severe storms are not expected.
(NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources)

Space Weather:

Space weather during the past 24 hours has been minor, with radio blackouts reaching the R1 level.  No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.  (SWPC) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
Snow showers will target the Rockies and parts of the Northern and Central Plains today.  Air stagnation and some fog will continue east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon.  With pockets of below average temperatures from western Montana and eastern Colorado but above average temperatures nearer to the West Coast, highs will range from the 20s and 30s in Montana and Wyoming to the 60s and low 70s in the lower elevations of California and the deserts.  On Tuesday, rain and mountain snow will move into California, while very light snow lingers in Wyoming, Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Midwest:
A few snow flurries may develop from the Plains to the northern Great Lakes.  With temperatures from near average to 17 degrees above average, highs will range from the 20s and 30s in North Dakota and northern Minnesota to the 50s from Kansas to Ohio Valley.  On Tuesday, very light snow showers will extend from the central Plains to Great Lakes, with accumulations of up to an inch possible.

South:
Today will be dry for most of the region, with a few showers lingering in the southern Appalachians.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, and a few showers will linger in southeast Texas.  Light rain will develop over portions of coastal North Carolina overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. With temperatures below average in south Texas but average to 10 degrees above average over the remainder of the region, highs will range from the 50s north to the 70s and near 80 degrees in Florida. 

Northeast:
Snow showers will develop today across northern New York and northern New England, and a few snow showers may linger in southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia.  With temperatures from near average to 15 degrees above average, highs will range from the 30s and 40s near the Canadian border to the 40s and 50s around the Mid-Atlantic. (NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources)

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed over the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Caribbean:
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Outlook for Invest 90L located just west of the western tip of Florida.

Invest 90L is gradually becoming better organized and associated shower activity has been slowly increasing as it moves northeast towards southwest Florida.
There is a 30% (medium) chance of this system becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the north-northeast and northeast at 10-15 mph.  Regardless of development, this system will likely bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of southern Florida over the next couple of days.  On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1-2 inches and sustained winds of 20-25 mph.

Earthquake Activity

U.S. – No significant activity.
International – On Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 10:49 p.m. EST, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred in the Negros – Cebu Region of the Philippines, approximately 49 miles west-southwest of Cebu, Cebu, and 353 miles south-southeast of Manila at a depth of 12.4 miles.  Media reports are estimating between 5 and 13 fatalities near Guihulngan (numbers not confirmed through official sources). An estimated 30 homes have reportedly been buried in Guihulngan and roads and bridges have also reportedly been damaged.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
A frontal system will bring widespread precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Northern California and the Northern Rockies. However, totals will be limited to no more than a half an inch. Light snow is forecast for the northern Cascades with heavier amounts (up to a foot) expected across the mountains of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Gusty winds are possible across Southern California, especially through the passes and along the foothills of the mountains.

Midwest:
The Northern and Central Plains will see snow and rain spreading out of the Rockies. Northern Minnesota and the Great Lakes will see a few snow showers but no significant accumulation is expected. The front extending from the low on the Gulf Coast will produce rain from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. A band of mixed precipitation is possible this morning from Indiana to Ohio with sleet, wet snow and light freezing rain possible.

South:
The low pressure system on the Gulf Coast will produce rain and thunderstorms across the region. Severe thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast states with gusty winds, hail and isolated tornados. Areas of heavy rain will produce flash flooding across much of the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians.

Northeast:
A frontal system will produce rain across the Mid Atlantic this morning which will spread into New England by tonight. As the precipitation moves into New York and New England, it will fall in a wintery mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Severe Weather Outbreak across Gulf Coast States:

A large area of thunderstorms and heavy rain moved through Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday, January 25. Three possible tornadoes were reported in Louisiana. National Weather Service survey teams will be visiting these sites today. Southeastern Texas received 6-8 inches of rain in Austin/San Antonio and 3-5 inches Dallas/Ft Worth area producing moderate river flooding. There were three confirmed tornado touchdowns in Texas: Pearland (EF-0), northwest of Austin, and southwest of San Antonio (Enhanced Fujita Scale ratings will be released later today), and two more possible tornadoes in Mt. Enterprise and Nacogdoches.  Numerous roadway closures include Interstate 35 (San Antonio), minor damages in Austin, Bastrop & Rusk counties.  Approximately 150 customers remain without power (down from 10,000). There is no request for FEMA assistance at this time.

Severe Weather – Southeast U.S. (FINAL

Cleanup continues across much of the mid- Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys from a severe weather system that occurred Sunday, January 22, through Monday, January 23.

The Governor of Alabama declared a State of Emergency for all 67 counties as a result of severe weather. There is no change to number of damaged (231) and destroyed (211) homes. As of 2:00 p.m., January 25, 2011, a total of six American Red Cross shelters remain open with 67 residents.  Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments for Individual Assistance (IA) continue in Chilton and Jefferson Counties. The FEMA Region IV Regional Response Coordination Center is at Watch/Steady State; there are no shortfalls or additional requests for FEMA assistance.

Major Western Storm Recovery

Washington
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is at Phase II (Enhanced Operations). The Thurston County EOC remains open (day only). The Pierce County EOC is at Level II with damage assessment centers operational. As of 10:00 p.m. EST, January 25, 2012, less than 3,600 customers remain without power (Puget Sound Energy).

Oregon
The State EOC has returned to Level I (Watch Steady State). The Hood River and Lincoln County EOCs are at limited activation.
The FEMA Region X Regional Response Coordination Center is at Watch/Steady State and the Bothell Mobile Operations Center maintains 24/7 operations. The FEMA Region X Liaison has returned from the Oregon State EOC. The Washington state Liaison remains at the state EOC. There are no shortfalls or additional requests for FEMA assistance.

Space Weather After the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on January 24, 2012, and the subsequent solar activity that followed, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards quiet levels. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves to rotate off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days. For NOAA Space Weather Scales go to www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html. Space weather during the past 24 hours has been moderate with solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A 5.3 Magnitude earthquake occurred at 11:42 pm EST 60 miles north-northeast of Hagatna, Guam at a depth of 72.7 miles. No damages or injuries were reported and no tsunami generated.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
A Pacific storm system is forecast to bring winter weather to the Rockies and Great Plains beginning later today and extending through the week. Tonight moderate amounts of snow, as much as 6-12 inches, will impact portions of Utah, western Wyoming and the central Colorado mountains. Strong winds east of Denver, over the Plains, could cause significant blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible on Friday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are forecast to continue for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, extending into the North Central U.S. into Saturday. Some rain and thunderstorms will move into portions of Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas late in the afternoon; heavier rain and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight. A strong storm developing over the Plains will bring the threat of locally heavy snowfall across northwestern Kansas and Nebraska tonight through early Saturday. Along with the snow some heavy rain and even a few severe thunderstorms will threaten portions of Kansas tonight and Friday.

South:
A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. Precipitation will likely exit the coast of North Carolina early in the day while the remainder of the Southeast is expected to remain dry. February temperatures are expected to remain mild across the Southern Plains. Red Flag warnings remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and south west Texas.

Northeast:
Rain showers will bring slight moisture to the Mid Atlantic states as a storm slowly moves off the coast; mostly cloudy and drier weather will prevail by the afternoon. Extremely warm conditions will come to an end across the Northeast as cooler air begins to arrive from Canada. Temperatures will reach into the teens and 20s across northern New England and northern New York; milder temperatures will extend from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic States.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed over the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Heightened Activity at Cleveland Volcano, Alaska:

Renewed eruptive activity of the Cleveland Volcano has been observed by satellite, prompting the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to elevate the Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange (Alert Level: Watch). Orange is the second highest warning level in the four-color alert system, and indicates that the Cleveland Volcano is exhibiting “heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption”. The Cleveland Volcano is located along the east central Aleutians, about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska.

As of Monday, January 30, a new lava dome approximately 130 feet in diameter was observed in the summit crater. No ash emissions or explosive activity have been observed; however, it is possible for intermittent, sudden explosions of blocks and ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. Minor eruptions and associated ash clouds of 15,000 feet occurred December 25 and 29, 2011. The most significant recent eruption took place in 2001, sending ash clouds as high as 39,000 feet. Hundreds of commercial flights and approximately 90 percent of air freight from Asia to Europe and North America that overfly Alaska could be impacted by an explosive, ash-producing event.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4052-DR-Alabama
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Alabama for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding that occurred January 22-23, 2012. Individual Assistance is designated for Chilton and Jefferson Counties, and all counties in the State of Alabama are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4053-DR-Utah
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Utah for a Severe Storm that occurred November 30 to December 1, 2011. Public Assistance is designated for Davis County, and all counties in the State of Utah are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Amendment # 5 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4042-DR-Virginia
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Albemarle and King George Counties for Individual Assistance.

Amendment #13 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4029-DR-Texas
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Bosque County for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance; Caldwell, Fayette and Grimes counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including directed federal assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance); and 26 counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including direct federal assistance.

Major Disaster Declaration number 4054 declared on Feb 02, 2012

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

 West:
A Pacific storm system is forecast to bring winter weather to the Rockies and Great Plains beginning later today and extending through the week. Tonight moderate amounts of snow, as much as 6-12 inches, will impact portions of Utah, western Wyoming and the central Colorado mountains. Strong winds east of Denver, over the Plains, could cause significant blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible on Friday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are forecast to continue for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, extending into the North Central U.S. into Saturday. Some rain and thunderstorms will move into portions of Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas late in the afternoon; heavier rain and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight. A strong storm developing over the Plains will bring the threat of locally heavy snowfall across northwestern Kansas and Nebraska tonight through early Saturday. Along with the snow some heavy rain and even a few severe thunderstorms will threaten portions of Kansas tonight and Friday.

South:
A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. Precipitation will likely exit the coast of North Carolina early in the day while the remainder of the Southeast is expected to remain dry. February temperatures are expected to remain mild across the Southern Plains. Red Flag warnings remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and south west Texas.

Northeast:
Rain showers will bring slight moisture to the Mid Atlantic states as a storm slowly moves off the coast; mostly cloudy and drier weather will prevail by the afternoon. Extremely warm conditions will come to an end across the Northeast as cooler air begins to arrive from Canada. Temperatures will reach into the teens and 20s across northern New England and northern New York; milder temperatures will extend from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic States. 

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed over the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. 

Heightened Activity at Cleveland Volcano, Alaska

 Renewed eruptive activity of the Cleveland Volcano has been observed by satellite, prompting the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to elevate the Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange (Alert Level: Watch). Orange is the second highest warning level in the four-color alert system, and indicates that the Cleveland Volcano is exhibiting “heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption”. The Cleveland Volcano is located along the east central Aleutians, about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska.

As of Monday, January 30, a new lava dome approximately 130 feet in diameter was observed in the summit crater. No ash emissions or explosive activity have been observed; however, it is possible for intermittent, sudden explosions of blocks and ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. Minor eruptions and associated ash clouds of 15,000 feet occurred December 25 and 29, 2011. The most significant recent eruption took place in 2001, sending ash clouds as high as 39,000 feet. Hundreds of commercial flights and approximately 90 percent of air freight from Asia to Europe and North America that overfly Alaska could be impacted by an explosive, ash-producing event.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4052-DR-Alabama
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Alabama for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding that occurred January 22-23, 2012. Individual Assistance is designated for Chilton and Jefferson Counties, and all counties in the State of Alabama are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4053-DR-Utah`
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Utah for a Severe Storm that occurred November 30 to December 1, 2011. Public Assistance is designated for Davis County, and all counties in the State of Utah are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Amendment # 5 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4042-DR-Virginia
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Albemarle and King George Counties for Individual Assistance.

Amendment #13 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4029-DR-Texas
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Bosque County for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance; Caldwell, Fayette and Grimes counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including directed federal assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance); and 26 counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including direct federal assistance. 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Major Disaster Declaration number 4053 declared on Feb 01, 2012

Major Disaster Declaration number 4052 declared on Feb 01, 2012

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
Rain and high elevation snow is expected across the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  The system is expected to move to the east-southeast, reaching the Northern and Central Rockies by Thursday.

Midwest:
Skies will be mostly sunny across the Plains, with temperatures 15-20 degrees above average in most areas.  A few light rain showers are possible across portions of Kentucky and Ohio.  Late Thursday, snow will begin to increase across the Plains, from South Dakota to Kansas.

South:
Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible today from the central Gulf coast northeastward to the southern Appalachians.  Rain is expected to be light to moderate over most areas, with some heavy rain possible near the Appalachians.  A threat for severe weather will exist across portions of the Southern Plains by late Thursday, as the system impacting the Rockies pushes east and begins to encounter increasing amounts of Gulf moisture.

Northeast:
Wintry precipitation is expected to continue today over northern New England.  Sleet and freezing rain will be likely over central New England, and northern Maine will see mostly snow.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:  
A complex series of disturbances will produce rain and snow across the Pacific Northwest tonight. Precipitation will continue overnight with total accumulations of 6-11 inches of snow possible by Wednesday morning.

Midwest:
A change in temperature, from cold to mild, will overspread the region today as a strong warm front spreads eastward from the Northern Plains. Tonight, light rain will develop along the front from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest. Runoff from the Jan. 19 snowstorm in Montana has produced elevated river levels along the Missouri River in North Dakota. The River is nearing Minor Flood Stage. Impacts are expected to be primarily confined to agricultural areas.

South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into the Central Gulf Coast this afternoon. This system could produce isolated very heavy rain from southern Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.

Northeast:
A mix of rain, snow and freezing rain will move into New England today, and depart by Wednesday evening. Widespread showers and high elevation snow is expected in portions of Maine. Accumulations of 4-8 inches of snow are possible by Wednesday morning.  (NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources) 

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 levels are expected.  (SWPC) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

At 6:39 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2012, a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred 6 miles east of Mineral, Va., at a depth of 1.9 miles. The quake is considered an aftershock of the M5.8 that occurred August 2011 near the same location. No damages or injuries were reported. No requests for assistance have been received or are expected. The North Anna Nuclear Plant declared an Unusual Event (UE) due to the earthquake.  An inspection of the plant was completed and the UE was closed at 12:35 a.m. EST this morning. No damages were reported at the plant and both units are running at 100% power.  (USGS) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments are currently underway in Alabama. (FEMA HQ) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather:

West:
The rain and high elevation snow over the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies will begin to taper off this morning, but another storm system will move into the region on Tuesday. Light rain and snow will continue in the Olympics and Northern Cascades through Tuesday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are expected to continue today across the Northern and Central Plains with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average. Scattered snow showers over the Upper Midwest will move eastward into New England by Tuesday. Due to high temperatures, gusty winds and low humidity, fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon for southeastern Kansas and parts of southwestern and central Missouri.

South:
Light rain lingering in the southern tip of Florida will begin to subside this evening. High pressure over parts of the Gulf Coast will begin to move east allowing rain to spread into Texas tonight. Long durations of low relative humidity and strong winds will continue to increase the risk of fire across portions of Alabama, Georgia and Florida; Red Flag Warnings remain in effect in these areas through this evening.

Northeast:
The storm system moving eastward out of the Midwest will continue to produce light snow across portions of the region this morning. Light accumulations are possible.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate with solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurring.  Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor; solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.  (SWPC) 

USGS Monitors Earth’s Magnetic Field to Prepare Citizens for Magnetic Storms

On January 19, 2012, scientists saw a solar flare, along with a concentrated blast of solar-wind plasma and magnetic field lines known as a coronal mass ejection, burst from the Sun’s surface. When these solar winds met Earth’s magnetic field, the interaction created a large magnetic storm which peaked on January 24th, 2012, just as another storm began. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), these storms indicate an up-tick in solar activity—and potentially an increase in the amount of magnetic storms on Earth—coming with the Earth’s ascent into the next solar maximum. The “solar maximum” is the period of greatest activity in the solar cycle of the Sun, which is predicted to occur sometime in 2013.

Magnetic storms are a space weather phenomenon responsible for the lights of the aurora borealis and, sometimes, for disruptions in technology and infrastructure. Large magnetic storms, for example, can interrupt radio communication, interfere with global-positioning systems, disrupt oil and gas well drilling, damage satellites and affect their operations, and even cause electrical blackouts by inducing voltage surges in electric power grids.

The USGS Geomagnetism Program, a partner in the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, maintains 14 observatories around the United States and its territories and provides ground-based measurements of changes in the magnetic field to various governmental, academic, and private institutions in order to help us understand how magnetic storms may impact the United States. In addition to providing data to its customers, the USGS produces models of the Earth’s magnetic field that are used in a host of applications, including GPS receivers, military and civilian navigational systems, and in research for studies of the effects of geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere (a shell of electrons and electrically charged atoms and molecules surrounding Earth), atmosphere, and near-space environment. Additional information on the USGS Geomagnetism Program and the Solar Cycle Prediction may be found at the following websites: geomag.usgs.gov/about.php, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.

Increasing U.S. Earthquake Preparedness

The Great Central U.S. Shakeout earthquake drill will be held on February, 7, 2012 to commemorate the bicentennial of the 1812 New Madrid Earthquake. More than 1.7 million people across nine states are expected to participate this year. Shakeout drills, modeled after California’s program for public earthquake preparedness, are designed to educate the public about how to how to prepare for, and protect themselves during a large earthquake. The shakeout teaches participants the “Drop, Cover and Hold On” model designed to save lives during actual events, and allows the opportunity for coordination between local and state entities. For more information visit: http://www.shakeout.org/centralus/. Japan will hold its first ShakeOut event, centered in Tokyo, on March 11, 2012, the anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Additional ShakeOut drills in California, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, British Columbia, and Guam, will be held on October 18, 2012.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 12:11 a.m. EST on January 30, 2012 near the coast of central Peru. The quake occurred approximately 9 miles southeast of Ica, Peru and 173 miles south-southeast of Lima, Peru at a depth of 24.4 miles. There have been no reports of injury or damage and no tsunami was generated. There were no requests for FEMA assistance. 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)